MS NOW; Finn Gomez / Getty Images |
Election Day is finally here, and the polls, early voting and general electoral dynamics are practically now all in agreement: you should expect a big “blue wave” in the midterm elections that is large enough to give Democrats the House, and might be large enough for them to flip the Senate. But how much faith should we put into that consensus?
Our final forecast gives Democrats a 99% chance of winning the House, with a median of 240 seats. Republicans would need the polls to be off by more than they were in 2016, 2020 or 2024 to change that.
Our certainty about the House does not extend to the upper chamber of Congress, however. The polls in the Senate are much closer. Our final forecast gives Democrats a 77% chance of getting there, with a median of 52 seats. They have an 87% chance of reaching at least 50, but 50 isn’t enough. |
